EIA projects OECD oil stocks at lowest since 2003 as Brent heads for $105
By Harvey Rowlinson, Founder and Director, Purely Energy
Published 10 June 2026
OECD oil inventories are on track to fall below 2.3 billion barrels by December, their lowest level since records began in 2003, with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting Brent crude to average around $105 per barrel through June and July.
The EIA's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook projects total oil reserves across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members dropping to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. That is the lowest stockpile the agency has recorded since it began tracking the data in 2003, the Financial Times reported.
The mechanism is straightforward: the Iran conflict has halted roughly 11 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern production, and inventories are being drawn down at an unprecedented rate to fill the gap. The EIA's projection assumes maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the route for 20% of global oil shipments, will not return to pre-conflict levels until early 2027, S&P Global Commodity Insights noted. 'Most production in the region is still halted, and global oil inventories continue to decline to satisfy demand,' the agency stated.
What this means for UK buyers
For UK commercial energy buyers, the spot-to-futures gap is the figure to study. The EIA expects Brent to average around $105 per barrel in June and July, well above the $91.60 observed in the futures market on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. A spot premium of that size signals the market has not yet priced in a prolonged drawdown, and oil strength typically feeds through to NBP gas and UK baseload power via fuel-switching and LNG freight costs. If you have a renewal landing in Q3, the curve you see today may understate where delivered prices settle.
Decision points to watch:
- Brent spot versus futures convergence ($105 forecast against $91.60 on the curve)
- The OECD inventory path toward 2.3 billion barrels by December
- US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
- The pace of any restart in halted Middle Eastern production
- Knock-on moves in NBP gas and Season-ahead UK baseload
Demand is already responding. The EIA now forecasts global oil demand falling 1.1 million barrels per day this year, reversing its previous call for a 200,000 barrels per day increase. That would be the first annual contraction since the pandemic-driven drop in 2020, driven by elevated prices, reduced fuel availability, and government conservation measures.
The next inflection is diplomatic, not physical. Reports of a potential US-Iran agreement to reopen Hormuz have already pulled prices lower, but the deal remains unfinalised. Until flows normalise and inventories rebuild, the EIA expects prices to stay high; a confirmed reopening would reshape the back end of the curve quickly, so fixed-price buyers holding off on a Q3 or Q4 renewal should track the talks as closely as the inventory data.
Wholesale market chart
Brent Crude
Last 7 days, settlement data
92.83USD/bbl
−2.2% over 7 days
Why this window: Last 7 days — 6.9% range, 2.2% net move lower. Tight window picked so the week's price action is visible.
How we produced this article
This article was AI-drafted from public market reporting by Harvey Rowlinson on 10 June 2026. It is scheduled for its next review on 10 June 2027.
Sources
- EIA warns OECD oil inventories to fall to two-decade low as Hormuz disruption bites, Financial Times (accessed 10 June 2026)
- EIA sees OECD oil stocks slumping to lowest since 2003 on extended Hormuz outage, S&P Global (Platts) (accessed 10 June 2026)
- Oil Stockpiles in Rich Nations Seen Sinking to Lowest Since 2003 on Hormuz Crisis, Bloomberg (accessed 10 June 2026)
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