OPEC+ set to lift July quota by 188,000 bpd as Hormuz cuts actual supply

Seven core OPEC+ members are expected to approve a further output quota increase of approximately 188,000 bpd for July when ministers meet online on Sunday, continuing the group's gradual unwind of the 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023. Three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters that no final decision had been reached, and all requested anonymity.

The quota rise would be the same monthly increment set for June, which was itself trimmed from 206,000 bpd following the UAE's exit from OPEC+ on 1 May after nearly 60 years of membership. The seven members due on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. Ongoing conflict in Iran has prevented some Gulf producers from fulfilling earlier quota increases, pulling collective output down sharply: OPEC data show the group averaged 33.19 million bpd in April, against 42.77 million bpd in February.

What this means for Brent and UK energy buyers

Brent's path over the last six months provides the backdrop against which Sunday's quota decision will be judged.

The gap between quota and actual production matters. Paper targets have been rising since April, yet physical barrels reaching market have fallen because of Hormuz-related export constraints. A continued quota increase signals the group's intention to return oil to the market, but delivery depends on how quickly the straits reopen to normal traffic. For UK commercial buyers, Brent feeds gas-indexed import contracts and influences the broader commodity sentiment behind NBP forward curves.

Key price and supply points to monitor over the coming weeks:

• July OPEC+ quota target: up approximately 188,000 bpd on the June level
• Cumulative quota rollback from April to June: roughly 600,000 bpd added across the seven members
• April actual output: 33.19 million bpd, down from 42.77 million bpd in February
• Remaining 2023 cut to unwind from July: approximately 567,000 bpd (adjusted for UAE exit)
• Projected full unwind timeline: end of September 2026 if 188,000 bpd increments continue through August and September
• Technical meetings: OPEC delegates convene in Vienna on Monday and Tuesday

If August and September follow the same increment, Reuters calculates the original eight-member cut would be fully reversed by end of September. That path assumes no further geopolitical disruption and no additional member exits, both of which remain live risks given the current Hormuz situation.

Watch Sunday's ministerial outcome and any accompanying statement on compliance expectations. A softer-than-expected July increment, or language flagging output flexibility, would likely firm Brent and exert upward pressure on near-curve NBP; a clean 188,000 bpd agreement in line with expectations should keep oil curves broadly stable into next week.